2019 Oscar Predictions

Here we are, just one day away from the Academy Awards! Last year was my first year doing Oscar predictions, and I was not very good. All I had was a printed out sheet of the nominees and a 15 minute google search. I’m hoping to do a lot better this year.

NOTE: I’ll include my prediction on each category’s header. I’ll also bold it in the list of nominees. I will also put an asterisk next to the movie I think should win.

Best Picture – Roma

• Black Panther
• BlacKkKlansman (*)
• Bohemian Rhapsody
• The Favourite
• Green Book
• Roma
• A Star Is Born
• Vice
  

In my opinion, it’s a fairly weak year in the Best Picture category. I think it’s between “Roma”, “BlacKkKlansman”, and “Green Book”. I’m rooting for “BlacKkKlansman”, but I expect it to be “Roma”. As long as it’s not “Green Book” that comes out on top, I’ll be happy.

Best Director – Alfonso Cuaron (Roma)

• Alfonso Cuaron (Roma)
• Yorgos Lanthimos (The Favourite)
• Spike Lee (BlacKkKlansman) (*)
• Adam McKay (Vice)
• Pawel Pawlikowski (Cold War)

I keep going back and forth between Spike Lee and Alfonso Cuaron.

Best Actor in a Leading Role – Rami Malek (Bohemian Rhapsody)

• Christian Bale (Vice)
• Bradley Cooper (A Star Is Born) (*)
• Willem Dafoe (At Eternity’s Gate)
• Rami Malek (Bohemian Rhapsody)
• Viggo Mortensen (Green Book)
  

Rami Malek has weathered the storm surrounding “Bohemian Rhapsody”, and I think he will come out on top. I’d love to see Bradley Cooper get some love, but it just doesn’t seem to be in the cards.

Best Actress in a Leading Role – Glenn Close (The Wife)

• Yalitza Aparicio (Roma)
• Glenn Close (The Wife)
• Olivia Colman (The Favourite) (*)
• Lady Gaga (A Star Is Born)
• Melissa McCarthy (Can You Ever Forgive Me?)

This category is LOADED. Honestly I’m not sure about this one because I really think any of them could win. I do not expect to get this prediction correct.

Best Actor in a Supporting Role – Maharshala Ali (Green Book)

• Maharshala Ali (Green Book) (*)
• Adam Driver (BlacKkKlansman)
• Sam Elliot (A Star Is Born)
• Richard E. Grant (Can You Ever Forgive Me?)
• Sam Rockwell (Vice)

I’d love to see Adam Driver or Richard E. Grant pull off an upset, but this one is Mahershala’s to lose.

Best Actress in a Supporting Role – Regina King (If Beale Street Could Talk)

• Amy Adams (Vice)
• Marina de Taviro (Roma)
• Regina King (If Beale Street Could Talk) (*)
• Emma Stone (The Favourite)
• Rachel Weisz (The Favourite)

Again, this category is LOADED. I think it’s between Regina King and Rachel Weisz, but every nominee in this category is outstanding. I do not expect to get this prediction correct.

Best Animated Feature Film – Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse

• Incredibles 2
• Isle of Dogs
• Mirai
• Ralph Breaks the Internet
• Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse (*)

When I saw “Incredibles 2” in the summer I thought there was no way it wouldn’t win Best Animated Feature…then along came “Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse”. It is miles better than the other nominees in this category. I honestly think it should have been nominated for Best Picture.

Best Animated Short Film – Bao

• Animal Behaviour
• Bao (*)
• Late Afternoon
• One Small Step
• Weekends

Best Cinematography – Roma

• Cold War
• The Favourite
• Never Look Away
• Roma (*)
• A Star Is Born

Best Costume Design – The Favourite

• The Ballad of Buster Scruggs
• Black Panther
• The Favourite (*)
• Mary Poppins Returns
• Mary Queen of Scots

Best Documentary Feature – Free Solo

• Free Solo (*)
• Hale County This Morning, This Evening
• Minding the Gap
• Of Fathers and Sons
• RBG

In a category missing “Won’t You Be My Neighbor?”, the next best option is “Free Solo”.

Best Documentary Short Subject – Period. End of Sentence

• Black Sheep
• End Game
• Lifeboat
• A Night at the Garden
• Period. End of Sentence (*)

Best Film Editing – Vice

• BlacKkKlansman (*)
• Bohemian Rhapsody
• Green Book
• The Favourite
• Vice

It better not go to Bohemian Rhapsody. What an abomination of editing. There were dozens of films more deserving of a nomination in this category.

Best Foreign Language Film – Roma (Mexico)

• Capernaum (Lebanon)
• Cold War (Poland)
• Never Look Away (Germany)
• Roma (Mexico) (*)
• Shoplifters (Japan)

Best Live Action Short – Skin

• Detainment
• Fauve
• Marguerite
• Mother
• Skin (*)

Best Makeup and Hairstyling – Vice

• Border
• Mary Queen of Scots
• Vice (*)

Two words…Christian Bale

Best Original Score – If Beale Street Could Talk

• BlacKkKlansman
• Black Panther
• If Beale Street Could Talk (*)
• Isle of Dogs
• Mary Poppins Returns

Best Original Song – Shallow (A Star Is Born)

• All the Stars (Black Panther)
• I’ll Fight (RBG)
• The Place Where the Lost Things Go (Mary Poppins Returns)
• Shallow (A Star Is Born) (*)
• When A Cowboy Trades His Spurs for Wings (The Ballad of Buster Scruggs)

I predict this will be A Star Is Born’s only Oscar win. It is crazy to think after how much momentum it had upon release that it will most likely walk away with one Academy Award.

Best Production Design – The Favourite

• Black Panther
• The Favourite (*)
• First Man
• Mary Poppins Returns
• Roma

Best Sound Editing – First Man

• Black Panther
• Bohemian Rhapsody
• First Man (*)
• A Quiet Place
• Roma

Best Sound Mixing – Bohemian Rhapsody

• Black Panther
• Bohemian Rhapsody
• First Man
• Roma (*)
• A Star Is Born

I wish I could have seen “Roma” in a theater. Even at home with my 2.1 speaker setup the sound mixing was incredible. the movement of sounds throughout the entire movie is incredible. Unfortunately, I don’t think The Academy feels the same.

Best Visual Effects – Avengers: Infinity War

• Avengers: Infinity War
• Christopher Robin
• First Man (*)
• Ready Player One
• Solo: A Star Wars Story

Best Adapted Screenplay – BlacKkKlansman

• The Ballad of Buster Scruggs
• BlacKkKlansman (*)
• Can You Ever Forgive Me?
• If Beale Street Could Talk
• A Star Is Born

Best Original Screenplay – The Favourite

• The Favourite (*)
• First Reformed
• Green Book
• Roma
• Vice

My Favorite Movies of 2018

Alright, let’s do this one last time. My name is Peter Parker. I was bitten by a radioactive spider and for ten years I’ve been the one and only Spider-Man. I’m pretty sure you know the rest. I saved a bunch of people, fell in love, saved the city, and then I saved the city again and again and again.

Peter Parker

Back in July, I made a post of my favorite movies of the first half of the year (My Favorite Movies of 2018…So Far). Now that we’re at the end of the year, it’s time for me to pick my favorite movies of the entire year. It was an incredible year for movies. I saw a personal record of 51 movies at the theater in 2018, thanks to MoviePass and AMC A-List. There were outstanding and record-breaking blockbusters, as well as personal and moving indie films. I just hope 2019 can match it.

I’ve got a couple of conditions for this list. One, they are listed in no specific order as I’d probably go crazy trying to rank each of them. Two, due to the limited release of “If Beale Street Could Talk” (which everyone says is incredible), I wasn’t able to see it before the end of the year even though it officially opened almost a month ago. And three, as the title says, these are my favorite movies. Not the best, or most likely to garner awards recognition, but simply the movies I personally enjoyed the most this year (AKA “Roma” isn’t on here even though it is going to go gangbusters at the Oscars).

Game Night

“Game Night” was a truly inspired studio comedy. In a world full of Judd Apatow inspired ad-libbed style comedies, “Game Night” was a breath of fresh air. The whole affair feels very Edgar Wright-esque with its tight writing, insanely well choreographed (and filmed) action sequenced, and incredibly funny visual humor. The ensemble cast works well together as each character has clear motivations and arcs. The plot twists are good, and the Jesse Plemons absolutely kills it in his “minor” role. “Game Night”, along with “Tag” and “Instant Family”, proved in 2018 that the studio comedy isn’t dead.

Mission: Impossible – Fallout

Over the course of six entries, the “Mission: Impossible” franchise has grown better, stronger, and more entertaining. Each film in the series ups the ante in all facets, and “Fallout” does not disappoint. Tom Cruise does Tom Cruise things, like becoming the first actor to perform a HALO (High Altitude Low Open) jump and learning to fly stunts in a helicopter without a co-pilot. The plot is tight, the action is compelling, and the cinematography is breathtaking (I’m hoping it gets at least an Oscar nomination…though “First Man” and “Roma” may be even better). Simply put, “Mission: Impossible – Fallout” is not only the best action movie of 2018, but it is one of the best action movies of the last decade.

Widows

“Widows” deserves so much more love than it is getting. Viola Davis is an absolute force and the ensemble supporting cast is a joy to watch. The twists are well earned and the payoff is hard won. Every character is well-written and has a fulfilling arc with a satisfying “end”. Unfortunately, I feel the marketing strategy may have hurt the movie more than anything. It was built up as an action heist movie, when in reality it was a slow-burning thriller. That’s fine with me, because I love slow burn movies, but many people left disappointed they didn’t get what they expected. Hopefully “Widows” gets some awards buzz and more people will give it the love it deserves.

First Man

With “Whiplash”, “La La Land”, and now “First Man” under his belt, it appears Damien Chazelle can do no wrong. All three of his films have all been critically acclaimed and the first two were nominated for Best Picture. Now I don’t normally get claustrophobic, but “First Man” made me feel that way multiple times. Every aspect of the production, from the incredibly accurate practical sets to the specific choices of film stock, is designed to make you feel like you are right there in the midst of everything. And I have to say…it works. Everything feels incredibly real, unsure, and (especially during the launch sequences) dangerous. “First Man” is an incredible example of how movies can transport us to places so few of us have actually ever been.

BlacKKKlansman

Spike Lee is officially back. “BlacKKKlansman” is funny, entertaining, relevant, and sadly sobering. Adam Driver turns in yet another outstanding performance and John David Washington is utterly brilliant. When I first saw this movie I said, “it would win Best Picture if the Oscars were held today” (Movies in August). Five months later and I’m not quite so confident, but I hope it gets recognized with a nomination at the least. It would absolutely be deserved. At the end of the day, “BlacKKKlansman” is an extremely well-made movie with an incredibly powerful message that left me feeling like I had been punched in the gut.

Won’t You Be My Neighbor?

Sometimes it’s hard to believe a man as good as Mister Rogers actually existed. That he wasn’t just some folk legend, but an actual living human. Luckily, both for those who loved his show and for those who never got a chance to see it, Fred Rogers’s goodness is on full display in “Won’t You Be My Neighbor?”. There was not a dry eye left in the theater at the showing I saw. The filmmakers did a wonderful job highlighting all the outstanding work Fred Rogers did both on and off the air and were able to package it all into a documentary that is both incredibly insightful and emotionally rewarding. If you have not seen “Won’t You Be My Neighbor?” yet, please find a way to watch it. You will not be disappointed.

The Shape of Water

Yes, this may be a bit of a cop-out as it was officially released on December 23rd, 2017, but I was not able to see it until 2018, so I’m going to include it on my list. I predict a similar problem will occur on next year’s list with “If Beale Street Could Talk”. With that being said, “The Shape of Water” is just an outstanding piece of cinema (I mean, it did win Best Picture after all). It is, as the beginning narration states, a classic “tale of love and loss”. As such it is filled with melancholy, from the color scheme, to the sore, to the characters. Yes, the plot of “woman falls in love with a fish” may sound a little strange, but through Guillermo del Toro’s passion and attention to detail it all works.

The Old Man and the Gun

Probably the most easy-going movie of 2018, and definitely one of the most enjoyable. Robert Redford rode off into the sunset in a film that had me smiling all the way through. Just like it’s leading man, “The Old Man and the Gun” is suave, charismatic, and entirely enchanting. The prison escape montage towards the end of the film (which uses actual footage of a young Redford) is one of the most joyous scenes I’ve ever seen at the cinema. All-in-all, “The Old Man and the Gun” is a fitting send-off for one of Hollywood’s greatest stars.

Bad Times at the El Royale

This is the one movie on my list that I really loved that critics did not. And, to be honest, I understand why not everyone loved it. “Bad Times at the El Royale” is long, slow, and the plot plays out in unexpected ways. It is decidedly not for everyone. On the other hand however, the characters are intriguing (every character has something to hide and something to lose), the production design is beautiful (the cinematography especially), and the acting is superb. Cynthia Erivo (just as she does in “Widows”) steals every scene she appears in, and Jeff Bridges is heartbreakingly sincere.

Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse

Let’s be honest, “Into the Spider-Verse” is a nearly perfect movie. It is brilliant, funny, and moving. The animation style is jaw-dropping. My partner and I saw it twice during its opening weekend.  “Into the Spider-Verse” was so critically and commercially successful that Sony is already looking into expanding the “Spider-Verse”. Not many movies live up to (even fewer surpass) the hype, but this one did. Also, I need to mention that 2018 was a ridiculously good year for animation. “Incredibles 2”, “Isle of Dogs”, and “Ralph Breaks the Internet” would all be near locks for the Best Animated Feature Oscar, but not in 2018. I just hope 2019 brings us just as many quality animated films.

Honorable Mention…

“Incredibles 2”, “Avengers: Infinity War”, “Sorry to Bother You”, “Annihilation”, “Tully”

Well there you have it, my favorite movies of 2018. Did any of your favorite movies of the year not make my list? Which ones did I miss? Let me know so I can find them and watch them!

Oscar Season Preview

“I like fall,” you say, shivering ever so slightly; you have not unpacked your sweaters yet, but now you will, prompted by the low background soreness of a body that had forgotten, over those brief, bright months of joy and abundance, the need to vibrate itself at all times in order to ward off death.

Albert Burneko

Well, after seemingly eights months of warmth and happiness Summer has finally yielded to cooler weather. Fall is officially here, which means it’s just about Oscar Movie Season! “Oscar Season” is typically defined as the final two-to-three months of the calendar year where studios release their heavy-hitting films so as to be fresh in the minds of The Academy when they vote in February.

There have already been several movies released this year which will undoubtedly be nominated for (and win) Oscars. “Won’t You Be My Neighbor”, “BlacKkKlansman”, “Avengers: Infinity War”, and “Incredibles 2” are just a few of them. Now, however, we are about to get a rush of the typical “Oscar-bait” films. From big-budget to small and from animated to indie, here are some of the movies I’m most looking forward to this Oscar Season.

October

• Bad Times at the El Royale (October 12th)

“Bad Times at the El Royale” has one of the best trailers of the year. It looks part dark comedy, part mystery thriller all with incredible art direction. Plus the cast (Dakota Johnson, Jeff Bridges, John Hamm, Chris Hemsworth, etc.) is outstanding to boot. Suffice it to say I am EXTREMELY excited to see this movie.

• Beautiful Boy (October 12th)

“Beautiful Boy” is based on a pair of memoirs that track a father and son through a family’s struggles with addiction. It sounds incredibly dense, but also incredibly powerful and moving as well. We know by this point that Timothée Chalamet will turn in a fantastic performance, and Steve Carrell has shown he has some dramatic chops as well.

• First Man (October 12th)

If “La La Land” taught us anything it’s that when Damien Chazelle and Ryan Gosling team up good things happen. The early reviews paint “First Man” as the most personal movie about the space program ever. It’s basically an intimate character study of Neil Armstrong, which honestly sounds incredible.

• The Hate U Give (October 19th)

Based on the best-selling book by the same name, “The Hate U Give” promises to be a nuanced look at the current state of race relations in America. The movie features an outstanding cast, including Amandla Stenberg, Issa Rae, and Common.

November

• Bohemian Rhapsody (November 2nd)

I was immediately hooked the first time I saw this trailer. Unfortunately, after some production turmoil, my interest has wavered a bit. I still expect Rami Malek to deliver a pitch-perfect performance as Freddie Mercury, but I am left to wonder just how well constructed the rest of the film will end up being.

• Boy Erased (November 2nd)

“Boy Erased”, like “Beautiful Boy”, is a brutal coming-of-age story based on a memoir. This time, however, forced conversion therapy is at the center of a family’s struggles. The film stars Lucas Hedges who is one of my favorite young actors. He had an incredible 2017, and he has multiple movies coming out late this year that will hopefully keep his momentum going.

• Ralph Breaks the Internet (November 16th)

If you didn’t love “Wreck-it Ralph” back in 2012, well, I’m not sure you’re alive.  The entire cast from the first film is back, plus, except for Mary Costa (who voiced Aurora in 1959 and is now 88), every living actress to voice a Disney Princess will reprise their role. With Disney’s track record I would be absolutely floored if this movie is not a critical and box office hit.

• Green Book (November 16th)

Imagine “Driving Miss Daisy” but the races are reversed and you’ve got the basic premise of “Green Book”. The 1960’s period piece co-stars Viggo Mortensen and Mahershala Ali. The film turned heads by winning the prestigious “People’s Choice Award” at the Toronto International Film Festival last month.

• If Beale Street Could Talk (November 30th)

“Moonlight” writer/director Barry Jenkins is back, this time working with an adapted screenplay that follows two young lovers in Harlem in the 1970s. This film actually finished first runner-up to “Green Book” at TIFF, so having them back-to-back here on my list seems fitting as well.

December

• Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse (December 14th)

The genre of “superhero origin story” has been done to death in recent years, but “Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse” looks primed to stand apart from the rest of the field. The animation looks unique, the plot sounds intriguing, and the cast is to die for.

• Mary Poppins Returns (December 21st)

I am skeptical about this. I find it hard to believe it is possible to recreate the magic of the original “Mary Poppins”. The trailer does look promising and they have assembled the perfect cast, but I still have my doubts. Fingers crossed.

Those are some of the movies I am excited to see in the upcoming months…are there any I missed?

Movies in August

“2001: A Space Odyssey” is in many respects a silent film. There are few conversations that could not be handled with title cards. Much of the dialogue exists only to show people talking to one another, without much regard to content…It is meditative. It does not cater to us, but wants to inspire us, enlarge us.

Roger Ebert

August absolutely flew by. I began the month on vacation, and by the time I got back home August was nearly half gone. And with MoviePass seemingly on its deathbed,  getting to the theater was a major struggle this month.

I’m going to try something new in this month’s update with a “Movies at Home” section. I’ll list any movie I watched at home throughout the month, whether it’s Netflix, Hulu, Redbox, or one of the movies in My Collection. I’ll also start using an asterisk to denote any movie that I saw for the first time.

Movies at the Theater

As I mentioned above, MoviePass has been a total clustercuss over the past month or so. Their stock has tanked, their investors have no money left, and the customers are left with the wreckage. I’m not sure exactly what the future will hold as it pertains to MoviePass, but that’s another topic for another post.

I did have the privilege of seeing “2001: A Space Odyssey” for the first time in IMAX and WOW. I went in not really knowing much other than “something is discovered on the moon and there is a space mission to Jupiter where everything gets psychedelic”. In the end I am glad I didn’t know anything more than that. Going in without any preconceived notions allowed me to fully experience the film. And what an experience it was! A 4K version of the film is being released in late October, and it has immediately jumped to the front of my wish list.

Before I saw “2001: A Space Odyssey”, I thought the movie I’d be raving about the most in this monthly update would be “BlacKkKlansman”. It is rightfully being praised as Spike Lee’s best film since “Do the Right Thing” in 1989 and I honestly think it would win Best Picture if the Oscars were held today. It is absolutely phenomenal and relevant in the worst sort of way.

• 2001: A Space Odyssey (*)
• Eighth Grade (*)
• BlacKkKlansman (*)

(*) denotes any movie which I watched for the first time.

Movies at Home

• Spirited Away (*)
• O Brother, Where Art Thou
• Mary and the Witches Flower (*)
• Schindler’s List (*)
• Her
• My Neighbor Totoro
• Song of the Sea (*)
• Ponyo
• The Lego Batman Movie
• The Shape of Water
• Avengers: Infinity War
• The Dark Knight
• Field of Dreams

(*) denotes any movie which I watched for the first time.

Movies Added to My Collection

It’s getting towards the time of year where I’m starting to hold off on buying new releases. It may still be 3 months away, but Black Friday is coming up and unless I feel like I REALLY need to own a new movie on release day I will most likely end up waiting on it.

That being said, I did still add “Spirited Away” to My Collection this month, bringing my Studio Ghibli total up to 4 now. I also found some shelf labels at Ikea and decided to give labeling my collection in real life a shot. I might tinker with my sorting method, but it makes my shelves feel a little more official in a way.

• Spirited Away